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Top 20 Unit Sales Estimates (The-Numbers.com*HMM %)

Top 20 unit percentages current thru week ending 5/02/10

(Week after Avatar's release on DVD and Blu-ray)

Note: these usually lag the revenue charts for most of the week but recently were lagging behind by several weeks. This is now the closest these charts have been to the revenue charts all year long.

04/25/09 Avatar reported to be 2.7 million units by studio. This calculation method is probably underestimating sales for the week because of the NV non Walmart considered Top 20 unit metric being applied against the Walmart DVD sales. Identified other sales of titles on Top 20 Sellers and Top 20 Blu-ray charts identify ~350,000 other Blu-ray sales than the 2.7 Million Blu-ray+DVD version of Avatar sold.

These are through 5/02/10 at this time.

Scroll bar to see complete data set.

[CODE]All units and % are top 20 titles that week for each format

BD% on chart is BD/(BD+DVD)% of top 20 units (the old pie chart %)

[U][B]Date DVDTop20 DVD% TotalTop20 BD% BDTop20 BD/DVD*100 [/B] [/U]

2010

05/02 3,417,038 74.75% 4,571,288 25.25% 1,154,250 33.78 It's Complicated The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus

04/25 5,483,746 69.59% 7,880,078 30.41% 2,396,332*43.70 Avatar BD+DVD combo Crazy Heart The Lovely Bones The Young*Victoria

04/18 1,621,858 81.32% 1,994,415 18.68% 372,557 22.97 Pirate Radio *TBO 8.90 M worst ever to date for new release TBO (Avatar next week)

04/11 2,161,531 79.25% 2,727,484 20.75% 565,953 26.18 LOTR BD Bad Lieutenant The Collector *TBO down 4% YTY Easter week 2009 to after Easter 2010 week

04/04 6,756,535 86.44% 7,816,445 13.56% 1,059,910 15.69 Sherlock Holmes Alvin*and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel

03/28 6,868,332 79.23% 8,668,853 20.77% 1,800,521*26.21 Toy Story Toy Story 2 Blu-ray+DVD combo pack The Blind Side

03/21 7,712,829 83.33% 9,255,765 16.67% 1,542,936 20.00 The Twilight Saga: New Moon The Princess and the Frog Ninja Assassin Astro Boy

03/14 5,148,409 83.30% 6,180,563 16.70% 1,032,154 20.05 Precious The Boondock Saints II: All Saints Day Old Dogs

03/07 3,933,768 73.77% 5,332,477 26.23% 1,398,709 35.56 2012 Where the Wild Things Are Ponyo

02/28 4,504,520 74.22% 2,226,699 25.78% 574,043 12.74 Justice League: Crisis on Two Earths

02/21 4,504,520 86.97% 5,179,395 13.03% 674,875 14.98 Law Abiding Citizen

02/14 4,319,041 83.04% 5,201,157 16.96% 882,116 20.42 Couples Retreat Time Traveler's Wife

02/07 3,421,385 80.08% 4,272,459 19.92% 851,074 24.88 Zombieland Love Happens Amelia Planet Hulk

01/31 3,197,077 80.21% 3,985,883 19.79% 788,806 24.67 This is It Surrogates Saw VI

01/24 2,622,266 76.41% 3,431,836 23.59% 809,570 30.87 Gamer

01/17 3,073,388 80.60% 3,813,136 19.40% 739,748 24.07 I can Do Bad All By Myself The Hurt Locker

01/10 3,472,097 77.54% 4,477,814 22.46% 1,005,717 28.97 Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs

01/03 3,201,366 79.55% 4,024,344 20.45% 822,978 25.71 Paranormal Activity

2009

12/27 10,602,763 80.11% 13,235,255 19.89% 2,632,492 24.83 District 9

12/20 11,878,980 81.01% 14,663,597 18.99% 2,784,617 23.44 The Hangover Inglourious Basterds

12/13 10,918,304 81.68% 13,367,169 18.32% 2,448,865 22.43 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince

12/06 6,486,087 78.74% 8,237,347 21.26% 1,751,260 27.00 Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian Terminator Salvation

11/29 11,025,144 88.32% 12,483,179 11.68%*1,458,035*13.22 BF Angels & Demons (Black Friday week, BD likely underestimated)

11/22 7,647,830 78.22% 9,777,333 21.78% 2,129,503 27.84 Star Trek

11/15 10,529,835 81.39% 12,937,505 18.61% 2,407,670 22.87 Up Monsters Inc

11/08 7,976,987 82.32% 9,690,217 17.68% 1,713,230 21.48 G.I. Joe

11/01 7,235,173 86.07% 8,406,150 13.93% 1,170,977 16.18 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs

10/25 7,542,412 80.25% 9,398,644 19.75% 1,856,232 24.61 Transformer 2: Revenge of the Fallen

10/18 4,931,164 83.53% 5,903,465 16.47% 972,301 19.72 The Proposal Land of the Lost

10/11 2,896,009 70.56% 4,104,321 29.44% 1,208,312*41.72 Snow White Blu-ray DVD combo pack

10/04 4,317,022 85.15% 5,069,903 14.85% 752,881 17.44 Monsters vs Aliens The Wizard of Oz

9/27 2,577,976 84.89% 3,036,843 15.11% 458,867 17.80 Ghosts of Girl Friends Past

9/20 4,577,388 83.33% 5,493,085 16.67% 915,697 20.00 X-Men Origins: Wolverine

9/13 1,899,157 85.60% 2,218,641 14.40% 319,484 16.82 Crank 2: High Voltage

9/06 2,713,384 82.61% 3,284,571 17.39% 571,187 21.05 State of Play Gladiator Braveheart

8/30 2,685,638 90.68% 2,961,665 9.32% 276,027 10.28 Hannah Montana: The Movie

8/23 3,384,817 91.20% 3,711,422 8.80% 326,605 9.65 Hannah Montana: The Movie

8/16 2,895,711 86.64% 3,342,233 13.36% 446,522 15.42 I Love You, Man 17 Again

8/09 3,271,402 88.66% 3,689,829 11.34% 418,427 12.79 Race to Witch Mountain

8/02 3,606,723 81.49% 4,425,970 18.51% 819,247 22.71 Fast & Furious

7/26 3,469,627 80% 4,337,034 20% 867,407 25.00 Watchmen Coraline

7/19 2,013,710 87% 2,314,609 13% 300,899 14.94 The Haunting in Connecticut (pie chart changed by HMM)

7/12 2,563,408 87% 2,946,446 13% 383,038 14.94 Knowing Push

7/05 1,999,249 90% 2,221,388 10% 222,139 11.11 12 Rounds

6/28 2,963,546 88% 3,367,666 12% 404,120 13.64 Confessions of a Shopaholic

6/21 5,421,682 92% 5,893,133 8% 471,451 8.70 Friday the 13th

6/14 5,209,020 87% 5,987,379 13% 778,359 14.94 Gran Torino

6/07 3,970,841 88% 4,512,319 12% 541,478 13.64 He's Just Not Thank Into You

5/31 3,433,670 88% 3,901,898 12% 468,228 13.64 no major new studio releases

5/24 6,558,345 86% 7,625,983 14% 1,067,638 16.28 Paul Blart: Mall Cop Valkyrie

5/17 5,559,002 85% 6,540,002 15% 981,000 17.65 Taken Underworld: Rise of the Lycans

5/10 4,429,829 90% 4,922,032 10% 492,203 11.11 The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

5/03 4,334,922 90% 4,816,580 10% 481,658 11.11 Bride Wars Hotel for Dogs

4/26 3,884,888 86% 4,517,312 14% 632,424 16.28 Notorius The Wrestler

4/19 3,314,166 88% 3,766,098 12% 451,932 13.64 The Spirit

4/12 8,277,770 93% 8,900,828 7% 623,058 7.53 Bedtime Stories (Easter Sales)

4/05 5,721,690 90% 6,357,433 10% 635,743 11.11 Marley & Me SlumDog

3/29 6,529,305 87% 7,504,948 13% 975,643 14.94 Quantum of Solace

3/22 7,520,004 91% 8,263,741 9% 743,737 9.89 Twilight (not sold at Wal-Mart for Blu-ray version, BD estimate probably 40-50K high)

3/15 5,435,960 88% 6,177,227 12% 741,267 13.64 Pinocchio

3/08 3,849,449 90% 4,277,166 10% 427,717 11.11 Beverly Hills Chihuahua

3/01 3,335,531 92% 3,625,577 8% 290,046 8.70

2/22 4,125,505 90% 4,583,894 10% 458,389 11.11 High School Musical 3: Senior Year

2/15 4,770,305 92% 5,185,114 8% 414,809 8.70

2/08 5,616,864 93% 6,039,639 7% 422,775 7.53 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa

2/01 3,735,997 86% 4,344,183 14% 608,186 16.28 Open Season 2

1/25 2,930,532 83% 3,530,761 17% 600,229 20.48 Max Payne

1/18 3,275,945 88% 3,722,665 12% 446,720 13.64 Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys

1/11 4,154,503 87% 4,775,291 13% 620,788 14.94 Pineapple Express

1/04 4,733,578 84% 5,635,212 16% 901,634 19.05 (1Q 2009) Eagle Eye

2009 Above ^ 2008 Below v

12/28 10,029,134 87% 11,527,740 13% 1,498,606 14.94 Death Race (4Q 2008)

12/21 14,589,744 89% 16,392,971 11% 1,803,227 12.36 Mama Mia

12/14 15,656,259 86% 18,204,952 14% 2,548,693 16.28 The Dark Knight

12/07 13,065,998 89% 14,680,897 11% 1,614,899 12.36 Wanted Narnia Prince Caspian

11/30 13,891,705 90% 15,435,228 10% 1,543,523 11.11 Hancock

11/23 12,762,159 89% 14,339,504 11% 1,577,345 12.36 Wall-E

11/16 8,951,543 91% 9,836,860 9% 885,317 9.89 Hellyboy 2 Kung Fu Panda

11/09 4,813,398 92% 5,231,954 8% 418,556 8.70 Get Smart

11/02 5,084,812 92% 5,526,970 8% 442,158 8.70 Tinker Bell

10/26 5,870,781 88% 6,671,342 12% 800,561 13.64 The Incredible Hulk

10/19 5,515,943 89% 6,197,689 11% 681,746 12.36 Indiana Jones KOCS

10/12 5,022,723 90% 5,580,803 10% 558,080 11.11 Sleeping Beauty

10/05 7,645,705 87% 8,788,167 13% 1,142,462 14.94 Ironman (4Q 2008)

9/28 3,563,085 94% 3,790,516 6% 227,431 6.38 (3Q 2008)

9/21 2,660,810 92% 2,892,185 8% 231,375 8.70

9/14 2,905,757 92% 3,158,432 8% 252,675 8.70

9/07 2,237,375 88% 2,542,472 12% 305,097 13.60

8/31 3,700,328 94% 3,936,519 6% 236,191 6.38

8/24 2,721,414 94% 2,895,121 6% 173,707 6.38

8/17 1,300,437 92% 1,413,518 8% 113,081 8.70

8/10 1,904,530 93% 2,047,882 7% 143,352 7.53

8/03 2,410,745 90% 2,678,606 10% 267,861 11.11

7/27 1,999,902 91% 2,197,695 9% 197,793 9.89

7/20 2,661,096 92% 2,892,496 8% 231,400 8.70

7/13 2,161,864 88% 2,456,664 12% 294,800 13.64

7/06 2,344,112 93% 2,520,551 7% 176,439 7.53 (3Q 2008)

6/29 3,387,810 93% 3,642,806 7% 254,996 7.53 (2Q 2008)

6/22 2,941,032 94% 3,128,757 6% 187,725 6.38

6/15 4,549,086 93% 4,891,490 7% 342,404 7.53

6/08 2,924,484 91% 3,213,719 9% 289,235 9.89

6/01 2,969,115 90% 3,299,017 10% 329,902 11.11

5/25 6,032,181 93% 6,486,216 7% 454,035 7.53

5/18 4,116,119 95% 4,332,757 5% 216,638 7.53

5/11 3,436,325 95% 3,617,184 5% 180,859 5.36

5/04 3,951,319 95% 4,159,283 5% 207,964 5.26

4/27 3,704,727 94% 3,941,199 6% 236,472 6.38

4/20 4,599,084 94% 4,892,643 6% 293,559 6.38 (2Q 2008)

4/13 4,094,727 95% 4,310,239 5% 215,512 5.26

4/06 6,977,800 96% 7,268,542 4% 290,742 4.17

3/30 3,343,830 92% 3,634,598 8% 290,768 8.70 (1Q 2008)

3/23 11,933,888 94% 12,695,626 6% 761,738 6.38

3/16 6,523,737 96% 6,795,559 4% 271,822 4.17 (assumed 4% BD share)

3/09 3,943,451 96% 4,107,761 4% 164,310 4.17

3/02 5,272,493 96% 5,492,180 4% 219,687 4.17

2/24 5,009,987 96% 5,218,736 4% 208,749 4.17

2/17 4,716,726 96% 4,913,256 4% 196,530 4.17

2/10 3,528,678 96% 3,675,706 4% 147,028 4.17

2/03 2,022,469 96% 2,106,739 4% 84,270 4.17

1/27 3,307,632 96% 3,445,450 4% 137,818 4.17

1/20 2,997,845 96% 3,122,755 4% 124,910 4.17

1/13 3,484,803 96% 3,630,003 4% 145,200 4.17

1/06 4,702,519 96% 4,898,457 4% 195,938 4.17

1/6 thru 3/23 assumed at a high of 4% Blu-ray top 20 market share

2006 and 2007 data from SPHE report leaked to thedigitalbits.com that included actual unit figures for Blu-ray sold as reported by Nielsen Videoscan by week (not just top 20 titles)

Week Ending Total Blu-ray units sold

03/18/07 65,722

03/11/07 37,733

03/04/07 49,243

02/25/07 56,825

02/18/07 57,772

02/11/07 45,326

02/04/07 45,723

01/28/07 47,803

01/21/07 53,050

01/14/07 45,754

01/07/07 44,779

12/31/06 50,848

12/24/06 66,112

12/17/06 36,375

12/10/06 25,090

12/03/06 21,583

11/26/06 15,007

11/19/06 15,012

11/12/06 5,776

11/05/06 6,430

10/29/06 4,920

10/22/06 4,326

10/15/06 4,123

10/08/06 3,253

10/01/06 3,109

[/CODE] Methodology and Detailed Notes: Top 20 DVD is from the-numbers.com, Blu-ray total is calculated by HMM pie chart

Methodology and Detailed Notes:: Top 20 DVD is from the-numbers.com, Blu-ray total is calculated by HMM pie chart share. These are best understood of the translation of the scale of the The-Numbers.com estimate of the total units sales of the bestselling 20 DVD title sold into Blu-ray and total units by assuming that the Nielsen Videoscan first alert pie chart top 20 DVD versus top 20 Blu-ray can be applied to that number to estimate Blu-ray sales. Even if magnitude is off scale trends are probably accurate.

No attempt is made to adjust calculations for any week even when studio reports conflict except in these notes to explain exceptional weeks.

04/25/09 Avatar reported to be 2.7 million units by studio. This calculation method is probably underestimating sales for the week because of the NV non Walmart considered Top 20 unit metric being applied against the Walmart DVD sales. Identified other sales of titles on Top 20 Sellers and Top 20 Blu-ray charts identify ~350,000 other Blu-ray sales than the 2.7 Million Blu-ray+DVD version of Avatar sold.

04/18/10 Pirate Radio *TBO 8.90 M worst ever to date for new release TBO, Avatar was to be released next week

04/11/10 Lord of the Rings: The Motion Picture Trilogy on Blu-ray Bad Lieutenant The Collector *TBO down 4% YTY Easter week 2009 to after Easter 2010 week very low TBO

03/28/10 Toy Story Toy Story 2 Blu-ray+DVD combo counted as Blu-ray sales

10/11/09 Snow White Blu-ray+DVD combo counted as Blu-ray sales

Note that the 1Q 2008 numbers are probably even a bit high as 4% Blu-ray market share (the HMM 1/06 thru 4/20/08) is assumed for those weeks. It is also noted that The-numbers.com attempts to include Wal-Mart in its top 20 DVD figures while the HMM reported Nielsen Videoscan percentages do not.

In the particular case of the week of 3/22/09 where Wal-Mart did not sell the Blu-ray version of the weeks best selling DVD Twilight the numbers for Blu-ray are probably high by 40-50K. 3/29/09 is probably high by my estimate by half that amount or 20-25K.

Note: 3/23/08 was I Am Legend , Enchanted Bee Movie as top DVD sellers

3/15/09 was Pinocchio re release date

http://www.the-numbers.com/dvd/chart...8/20080323.php

Calculations have been revised to take into account relative Blu-ray and DVD market shares.

As the Blu-ray top 20 share % is apparently a market share number, the total reported DVD units would have to be divided by the DVD market share (ie for week of 10/5/08 Blu-ray = 13%, DVD would be 87% market share) to get a total DVD + Blu-ray = total discs sold, that would then be multiplied out by the Blu-ray market share to get the top 20 Blu-ray units sold

In other words the calculation is
DVD top 20 unit sales numbers / DVD top 20 unit sales ratio = (BD + DVD) top 20 unit sales numbers
then to get the Blu-ray top 20 unit sales ...
(BD + DVD) top 20 unit sales numbers X Blu-ray top 20 unit sales ratio = BD top 20 unit sales numbers
or
(BD + DVD) top 20 unit sales numbers - DVD top 20 unit sales numbers = BD top 20 unit sales numbers

(Same calculations would apply for individual Blu-ray sales of a title that is listed on the HMM weekly BD Market share chart where we also have the DVD sales for that title for the week on the-numbers DVD top 20 sales chart)


(BD/DVD*100 is a relative market share index of Blu-ray to DVD sales)
(BD/(DVD+DVD) is the Blu-ray market share expressed as a percentage)

NOTE:
As of 7/19/2009 the pie chart published by HMM was changed to be a revenue market share graph instead of a top best selling 20 DVD title versus top 20 best selling Blu-ray title unit sales comparison.

The top 20 unit Blu-ray marketshare for 7/19/09 was 13% and the top 20 unit marketshare for 7/26/09 was 20% instead of what was published on the HMM website homepage, digital online and print edition (8% and 16%).

The week of the Black Friday sales. Because of the large amount of discounted DVD volume sales for this unusual seasonal high volume DVD sales week, it is probable that the usual calculation for top 20 Blu-ray units underestimates the actual volume of Blu-ray units for this week ending 11/29/09,, as it unlikely that 11/29/09 was less than the week before on 11/22/09 or nearly equal to 11/30/08 when Blu-ray did only $21 M in sales compared to week ending 11/30/09 $69 M in sales. No effort has been made to adjust the normal calculation for this effect.

From Home Media Magazine estimates, the 2009 figure from Black Friday week was over twice as many units sold for Blu-ray.

Quote:

by HMM staff The Blu-ray share for the week ended 11/29 is correct.... that week saw a huge jump in Blu-ray sales, but they were overshadowed by the leap in DVD sales, hence the lower Blu-ray share. ....here are some other estimates: TOTAL Estimated Blu-ray unit sales for week ended 11/30/2008 was about 800,000 units. TOTAL Estimated Blu-ray unit sales for week ended 11/29/2009 was about 1,800,000 units.